Goals in Elevar are not the goals that come to mind in Google Analytics.
Goals in Elevar function the way you might track and report on your internal marketing and sales goals.
They basically work like this:
- Select a metric (e.g. revenue)
- Select a dimension (e.g. all traffic or paid search)
- Select a segment (e.g. mobile only)
- Select how you track your milestones (weekly or monthly)
- Select your start and end dates
- Set your total goal target (e.g. 5% improvement over last year)
- Set your custom milestone breakdown (e.g. adjust goals for seasonality)
Elevar will then track your current milestone and overall goal progress but more importantly will begin forecasting your goal at the end of the time period.
Again - this is all done by using your Google Analytics data. And you can create as many goals as you'd like.
The image above shows the graph of the goal and you can also see your milestone performance in a report below the graph:
Setting Your Goal Value
Based on your combination of metrics and dimensions along with the timeframe selected, we pull the previous year's data during the same time frame for quick reference.
So instead of having to calculate your goal on your own, you can do so quickly by using the % input.
Setting Custom Milestones
This step allows you to override specific weeks or months to account for seasonal fluctuations in your data. Be default we will split out your custom distribution into equal parts.
Example: If your goal value is $12,000,000 and your timeframe is 2018 (12 months) then your preset distributions per month will be $1,000,000.
The example above shows how I see spikes in the early part of the year so I've modified March and April.
The grey line in the chart is the previous year compare to data.
We are currently using Prophet by Facebook which is an open source forecasting model they released in 2017. After testing our own ARIMA and other statistical models we found Prophet to be the most accurate.
Here's a quote about the characteristics which are very similar to eCommerce:
"Prophet is optimized for the business forecast tasks we have encountered at Facebook, which typically have any of the following characteristics:
- hourly, daily, or weekly observations with at least a few months (preferably a year) of history
- strong multiple “human-scale” seasonalities: day of week and time of year
- important holidays that occur at irregular intervals that are known in advance (e.g. the Super Bowl)
- a reasonable number of missing observations or large outliers
- historical trend changes, for instance due to product launches or logging changes
- trends that are non-linear growth curves, where a trend hits a natural limit or saturates"
The forecasting model is under constant iteration and improvement and we strongly encourage feedback from you on the accuracy and/or tweaking that you would like to see!
Additional Goal Metrics
We will be adding in the ability to set goals on % and $ avg based metrics soon (i.e. conversion rate and AOV) as well as offering custom dimension filters (i.e. goals by product SKU). Prophet is new for us so we are still in full evaluation mode.